‘Pre’ Legalweek New York began Monday with various premium boot camp-style intensives, but for us, Tuesday’s ‘State of the Industry’ general session at 8:30AM (Grand Ballroom East) marked the official kick-off for Legalweek 2019.
Nicholas Bruch and Erin Hichman, both senior analysts with ALM Intelligence, took some time out of their busy schedules to provide us with some insight into their ‘state of the union’ keynote. Enjoy the Q&A.
IL: Before we dive into some of your findings for 2019, can you tell us a bit more about your research scope/areas of focus for this 'state of legal' presentation?
ALM Legal Intelligence: The State of the Industry presentation is meant to look at the entire legal market. This makes the scope of the presentation and the research process ahead of it quite broad. We look at trends in the law firm space, in the legal department space, and also look at alternative legal service providers (ASPs) and legal tech. The goal is to see how all of these moving parts fit together and what the trends in each space mean for the industry as a whole.
IL: In 2018, you focused much of your presentation on "what the data says" about the future of the legal market. Is this a focus in 2019?
ALM Legal Intelligence: Yes. We feel strongly that any analysis of the legal industry needs to start with the data. For this year’s presentation, we dove deep into the data on the legal industry to understand what the big trends were. We then combined those quantitative findings with some of the qualitative information we gather in interviews or in conversations we have with industry leaders. Those qualitative “data points” add context to the data and help bring it to life. The end goal is to try to create a cohesive narrative, supported by data, which tells us where the industry is going and what different market participants should be aware of in terms of the risks they might face and the opportunities that they should be taking advantage of.
IL: In terms of data, what are the top 3 significant data points, perhaps even ‘wow moments’ you will be sharing during your session?
ALM Legal Intelligence:
- Law firms had a good year: Law firms performed very well in the past fiscal year. They grew revenue by over 5% and 80% of firms saw improvements in profitability. Nearly a quarter of firms grew profitability by 10% or more. By almost any measure this is a great performance. Perhaps most importantly, all of the data we have suggests the year that just ended - the year that law firms are reporting to ALM Intelligence right now - will be even better.
- Law Department Insourcing: Most people know law departments have brought a lot of work in-house in the past decade. What I think most people don’t fully appreciate is the size and speed of the change.
"Our data suggest that law department in-sourcing is the primary driver of disruption in the legal industry right now." ALM Legal Intelligence
- The evolving vendor landscape: We think most people are aware there has been a lot of change in the vendor landscape in the past year in the legal industry. We see ASPs being bought and sold. We see the Big Four entering the legal market in a lot of different areas. In the presentation, we try to show the extent of the change and discuss how that change is going to impact the legal market over the next decade or so.
IL: You mention that based on your data analysis, the legal industry is undergoing a significant, if subtle, shift. What are you seeing in 2019?
ALM Legal Intelligence: 2019 is going to be a year of mixed signals. We are likely to see accelerated growth for ASPs and increased presence by new players like the Big Four. We are also likely to see law firms post their best year in over a decade. The subtle shift we are seeing is related to continued divergence in the law firm market. The law firm market is splitting into two distinct segments, each with differing business models and with differing performance (in terms of financial performance). We believe this divergence is going to continue in 2019 and accelerate, if only slightly.
IL: Of the six major trends you highlighted in 2018 (see below) as impacting the legal industry this year, which ones do you think had/will have the biggest impact? The Big 4. Consolidation. Divergence. Litigation Finance. Law Firm Failures. CLOC Movement
ALM Legal Intelligence: All of these trends are going to be important in 2019. The Big Four had a very busy year in 2018 and we expect that trend to continue. We will see them solidify their position in certain areas of the legal industry and expand, if cautiously, into a few new areas. Litigation Finance will be an interesting space to watch in 2019. It has been growing rapidly over the past several years below the radar. Its impact on the industry has not yet been fully appreciated or understood. We think that may change this year. It is now large enough that we can understand how litigation funders will fit into the broader legal market ecosystem and what impact they will have on supply, demand, pricing, and profitability. The area we are watching most closely is divergence.
As we mentioned above, law firms are looking and acting increasingly different. Some are sticking with a “lawyer centric” model focused on expertise and talent. Others are starting to figure out how to use their scale as a competitive weapon. This model will still require talent but it will also rely on process improvement, technology and scale to deliver legal services in ways never seen before. We suspect the differences between law firms will only accelerate over the next decade or so.
"The legal service provider landscape is going to change significantly over the next decade. That change will create opportunities for some and risks for others. It will also change the way legal services are bought, sold, and consumed." ALM Legal Intelligence